Track Record

When one of our tracked claims makes a specific, checkable prediction, we follow up once it's due and record what actually happened.

We previously published judged outcomes for 199 of these predictions. We've withdrawn those verdicts: the automated checking tool we used didn't give consistent enough answers for us to stand behind them, and it only checked predictions we already rated highly — not a fair test of our record. All 2421 tracked predictions remain on the books, and judged outcomes will return when we have a checking method we trust.

Corrections

Our own leading answers change as new evidence arrives. This lists the most recent time our leading answer changed on a tracked question.

• Jul 18 Is Iran trying to squeeze concessions through temporary pressure or permanently control the Strait? Iran aims to keep permanent control of the strait → Iran wants concessions, not permanent control
• Jul 15 Is Iran genuinely forced back to negotiations, or will it escalate further in response? Iran escalates instead of backing down → Iran forced back to negotiating table
• Jul 15 Is the 20% toll fixed or negotiable based on future talks? Trump's 20% toll is the actual policy, not a negotiating starting point → Trump is using 20% as a starting point for negotiations, not a final figure
• Jul 14 How much does this war add to petrol and heating costs for ordinary Americans? War pushes energy bills up noticeably, but not dramatically → War spirals into full energy crisis for U.S. families
• Jul 14 Will normal shipping through the strait return, or is restricted access becoming the new baseline? Iran plans to keep the strait restricted indefinitely → Shipping will resume at reduced but stable levels
• Jul 13 Could US military capability actually achieve the stated aim to decimate Iran for a year? US has firepower to cripple Iran's military in sustained strikes → Rhetoric exceeds what US military can realistically do
• Jul 12 Does succession instability in Iran increase the risk of military adventurism or restraint? New Iranian leadership chooses caution over confrontation → Power struggle pushes Iran toward risky military moves
• Jul 9 Does Trump actually have allied or military capacity to execute the threats he's making? Threats exceed what Trump can actually deliver → US has the military muscle to carry out Iran threats
• Jul 8 Is the US trying to negotiate a deal or overthrow Iran's government? US strategy is unclear, mixing negotiation pressure with destabilization → US is using military pressure to force Iran to negotiate
• Jul 6 How much of the infrastructure damaged was actually military versus civilian or educational sites? Most targets were military or weapons-related facilities → Civilian sites were deliberately targeted alongside military ones
• Jul 2 Is China's energy system becoming more or less vulnerable despite renewable expansion? Renewables are quietly making China's energy system more resilient → China's clean energy boom masks growing energy vulnerabilities
• Jun 25 Will Iran actually let ships pass freely through the strait, or is it planning to charge tolls? Iran tries to charge tolls despite ceasefire → Iran keeps strait open, no tolls planned
• Jun 25 Is Trump genuinely seeking peace with Iran, or using diplomacy as cover for escalation? Trump wants peace but has no real plan for it → Trump really does want peace with Iran
• Jun 25 Will oil prices stay low if Iran can actually sell oil again, or will global energy markets adjust differently? Oil prices to spike and fall depending on deal progress → War risks keep oil prices high despite more supply
• Jun 25 Can Iran and the US actually complete a nuclear deal within 60 days, or will logistical delays make that deadline impossible? Deal possible despite early delays → Talks will need extension beyond 60 days
• Jun 25 Is Iran's economy sustainable if Strait of Hormuz controls remain blockaded? Iran can survive a closed strait, but only by accepting poverty → Iran will be forced to back down within two years
• Jun 25 Did Trump actually sign the deal first at Versailles, or had it already been electronically signed? Trump signed deal fresh at Versailles, nothing pre-signed → Versailles was ceremonial re-signing of pre-signed deal
• Jun 25 Who will actually pay for Iran's $300 billion reconstruction—US taxpayers or regional investors? Arab and Asian investors will pay for Iran's reconstruction → American taxpayers will foot most of Iran's reconstruction bill
• Jun 25 Does the US-Iran memorandum actually bind Israel and Hezbollah, or just the US and Iran? Memo binds only US and Iran; Israel and Hezbollah not legally bound → Memo binds Israel and Hezbollah directly through Iran's negotiation
• Jun 25 Who benefits most if oil prices stay low: US energy security or Chinese economic growth? Low oil prices help China more than US → Low oil prices help US more than China