West African Governance Crises and International Interventio

Situation

Multiple West African nations experiencing governance instability, including Haiti's international military deployment, Nigeria-UK diplomatic realignment, Burkina Faso's human rights concerns, and Cameroon's restrictive refugee policies, alongside broader patterns of foreign intervention in regional

Key Evidence

• Reported event: The Sudanese Armed Forces regained control of Khartoum in 2023 following violent battles against the Rapid Support Forces. 1 source
• Reported event: Rapid Support Forces and Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North Alliance controlled Al-Karnak city during the previous week. 1 source
• Reported event: Blue Nile region is experiencing accelerating military escalation with expanding battles between the Sudanese Armed Forces, Rapid Support Forces, and Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North. 1 source
• Reported event: The Sudanese Army deployed substantial military reinforcements to retake Kassala District from the Rapid Support Forces and SPLM-N. 1 source
• Reported event: Battles are ongoing in the Karamak and Qaysan areas in Blue Nile region, Sudan. 1 source

What Could Change

Developments that could shift our assessment — sources are currently split on these possibilities.

• The deployment of chadian forces to haiti will represent either a turning point or another attempt that encounters the same obstacles as kenya-led efforts.
• Internal instability in the democratic republic of the congo will have consequences for neighboring states including uganda and burundi.
• Mano River Union faces a test of its capacity to achieve its objectives in promoting economic and security cooperation given the border disputes between Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.