What Changed

Wednesday, April 8

• Bondi out as Attorney General New evidence makes "New AG won't solve Trump's prosecution problem" possible — Now considered possible
• Central Europe's Court Shake-Up New evidence makes "Courts are losing independence to political pressure" unlikely — Now considered unlikely
• Central Europe's Court Shake-Up New evidence makes "Court troubles stay confined to Central Europe" possible — Now considered possible
• Central Europe's Court Shake-Up New evidence makes "Courts are maintaining independence despite political noise" unlikely — Now considered unlikely
• Central banks raise rates as inflation spreads New evidence makes "Turkey inflation stalls around 25% by year-end" possible — Now considered possible
• Central banks raise rates as inflation spreads New evidence makes "It's a mix of demand, supply, and policy factors" possible — Now considered possible
• China seeks to reduce reliance on Russian oil New evidence makes "Renewables will complement but not replace fossil fuels on schedule" unlikely — Now considered unlikely
• China seeks to reduce reliance on Russian oil New evidence makes "China can manage Middle East cutoff with reserves and alternatives" possible — Now considered possible
• China seeks to reduce reliance on Russian oil New evidence makes "China is genuinely diversifying away from Russian oil" very unlikely — Now considered very unlikely
• China seeks to reduce reliance on Russian oil New evidence makes "Strait of Hormuz carries minimal China oil—under 10% of energy" likely — Now considered likely
• China's Military Shakeup and Media Control New evidence makes "Military purges are disguised power consolidation" likely — Now considered likely
• China's Military Shakeup and Media Control New evidence makes "Reshuffles prioritize centralized control over command effectiveness" very unlikely — Now considered very unlikely