US Military Strategy and Great Power Competition

Situation

Sub-event of: Geostrategic Competition and Great Power Involvement

Key Evidence

• Jassim Al-Saadoun stated that increasing United States debt and global economic imbalances are among the drivers of escalation in the Middle East region. 1 source
• The possibility of the United States withdrawing from NATO should be treated as a serious security scenario by Poland and NATO allies. 1 source
• The United States set the opening date of the regional military conflict and had months to prepare for it. 1 source
• Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine needs United States THAAD missile defense systems currently deployed in the Middle East. 1 source
• Marina Miron warned that any United States rescue efforts for the downed pilot risk United States military casualties and could heighten the risk of further military escalation. 1 source

What Could Change

Developments that could shift our assessment — sources are currently split on these possibilities.

• European nato members will attempt to exploit united states failure in the persian gulf to re-engage washington in the ukraine conflict.
• Persian gulf monarchies will have to reassess their security relations with the united states once the war ends.