Shipping Industry Disruption and Stranded Vessels

Situation

Sub-event of: Strait of Hormuz Blockade

Key Evidence

• On 5 March 2026, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the Strait of Hormuz is not closed, but vessels including oil tankers choose not to cross it due to fear of attacks from both sides. 1 source
• On 11 March 2024, Khatam Al-Anbiya central headquarters announced that Iran would not allow US-affiliated oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. 1 source
• Forecast: Houthis would not refuse a direct Iranian request to join the war by beginning attacks on tankers in the Red Sea. 1 source
• Reported event: Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to less than 5 per cent of pre-war averages, declining from approximately 129 vessels daily to approximately 6 vessels daily. 1 source
• Reported event: The Houthis specifically did not say they would target tankers or other vessels transiting the Red Sea in their announcement on 2025-01-18. 1 source

What Could Change

Developments that could shift our assessment — sources are currently split on these possibilities.

• If iran's plan is to inflict pain through higher energy prices, iran may limit the number of tankers allowed through the strait of hormuz.
• If bab al-mandab strait is closed or blockaded, oil tankers would be forced to reroute around south africa, increasing shipping time by 5 to 10 days.