Middle East Gas Supply Disruption and Regional Alternatives
Situation
Military conflict in the Middle East has disrupted LNG shipments, prompting analysis of alternative gas supplies including Turkish reserves and Iranian gas infrastructure capacity constraints affecting global energy markets and regional actors.
The Narrative Gap
What sources agree on
- The south pars/north dome gas field is the largest known gas reserve in the world. 12 sources across 3+ regions
What's being left out
Claims well-evidenced in one region but absent from others.
The south pars field represents approximately 80% of iranian gas production.
Key Evidence
- Reported event: The Jackdaw Gas Field is located 150 miles (241 km) off Aberdeen in northeast Scotland. 1 source
- Vladimir Zelensky discussed practical steps to implement joint projects in gas infrastructure construction and the possibility of jointly developing gas fields with Turkey. 1 source
- Reported event: Iran produces 75 percent of its natural gas from the South Pars field. 2 sources
- Forecast: The Jackdaw gas field is expected to supply more than one million homes with gas in winter 2025-2026 and meet 6% of the United Kingdom's future gas needs. 1 source
- Reported event: Iran provided 14 percent of Turkey's natural gas supplies in 2025. 2 sources
What Could Change
Developments that could shift our assessment — sources are currently split on these possibilities.
- Turkey exports 3.5 billion cubic metres of gas to balkan countries and could reduce these exports to compensate for lost iranian gas supplies.
- Turkey could replace iranian gas supplies by utilizing half of its combined gas storage reserves (approximately 3.15 billion cubic metres).
- Turkey's gas production is expected to increase from under 4 billion cubic meters in 2025 to 15-20 billion cubic meters by 2030.
Source Profile
All claims are derived from third-party news reporting and are not independently verified. Confidence levels reflect reporting consistency across independent sources. This is not news reporting or professional advice. See Terms of Use.