Iran deployed Shahed drones in swarms during the February 2026 war to overwhelm U.S

For: Iran can hold the blockade for several months before economic pressure mounts

• Iran anticipated a US blockade of its ports and moved dozens of oil-laden tankers out to sea in advance. Advance preparation to move tanker fleets specifically supports the 'hold for several months' hypothesis, which explicitly flags pre-positioning as evidence of deliberate durability planning. 1 source, named source

For: Economic pain will force Iran to quit within months, not years

No strong supporting evidence

For: Iran has staying power—blockade could last a year or more

• Iran has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz for months, pushing up global energy prices, since the beginning of the conflict on 28 February 2026. Months of sustained blockade operations directly demonstrate the staying power and extended timeline this hypothesis predicts. 1 source, analysis

For: The world will just pay higher fuel prices

• Iran has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz for months, pushing up global energy prices, since the beginning of the conflict on 28 February 2026. Months of blockade causing sustained energy price increases directly supports the hypothesis that countries will simply accept higher prices rather than intervene to remove the blockade. 1 source, analysis

For: Iran targets tankers to enforce its strait blockade

• Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in late February 2026 in response to an American-Israeli attack. Iran's documented closure in response to attack establishes both capability and willingness to act decisively; it supports the hypothesis's claim that Iran will escalate from passive blockade to active operations. 1 source, unnamed sources
• Iran initiated a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following US-Israeli attacks on Iran that began on February 28, 2026. Iran's blockade of the strait confirms the strategic initiative and operational capacity underlying the tanker-targeting hypothesis; the blockade itself demonstrates Iran's willingness to deploy costly military resources to enforce control. 1 source, multiple independent
• Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz following the US and Israel initiation of war on 28 February 2026. Iran closing the strait demonstrates the blocking capability this hypothesis assumes; the timing on Feb 28 after US-Israeli attack matches the hypothesis's precondition for tanker-targeting escalation. 1 source, verified

For: Iran blocks strait but avoids hitting cargo ships

• Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to hostile vessels in response to United States-Israeli aggression. Iran's explicit closure 'to hostile vessels' directly matches this hypothesis's stated policy: controlling the strait while avoiding blanket commerce raiding against all shipping. 1 source, unnamed sources
• Iran has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz for months, pushing up global energy prices, since the beginning of the conflict on 28 February 2026. Months-long blockade raising global energy prices proves Iran achieved economic leverage through strait control alone, supporting the hypothesis that blockade itself—without tanker attacks—maximizes pain. 1 source, analysis
• Iran initiated a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following US-Israeli attacks on Iran that began on February 28, 2026. Iran's blockade confirms the capacity and willingness to close the strait; the blockade is consistent with control-without-destruction, supporting the hypothesis that Iran may prioritize chokepoint leverage over sinking commercial vessels. 1 source, multiple independent