Global Trade Patterns and Regional Supply Dependencies

Situation

Analysis of trade flows and supply chain dependencies including EU vaccine exports to developed nations, Russia's dominance in fertilizer markets, and bilateral trade relationships in the Caucasus and Middle East regions.

Key Evidence

• Reported event: Russia accounted for 19.3% of Indian crude oil imports in January 2026. 1 source
• Reported event: India's Russian oil imports soared to a nine-month high in March 2026 following the United States granting a temporary 30-day waiver allowing India to buy oil and petroleum products from Russia. 1 source
• Reported event: The European Union increased its fishing quotas for Atlantic mackerel in 2026 in the North Atlantic. 1 source
• Denis Manturov stated that Russia increased supplies of fertilisers to India by 40% by the end of 2025. 1 source
• Supplies of fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, small-tonnage chemicals, and mechanical engineering products from Russia are increasing in 2025. 1 source

What Could Change

Developments that could shift our assessment — sources are currently split on these possibilities.

• Russian fertilizer companies are expected to see net profit increase of 25-40 percent compared to 2025.
• Russia may significantly increase fertilizer exports to latin america amid chinese export restrictions and growing agricultural demand in the region.
• India will increase metallurgical coal purchases from russia by 8 percent year-on-year to 23.8 million metric tons in the 2026 assessment year commencing on 1 april 2026.