Global Economic and Supply Chain Disruption

Situation

Sub-event of: Diplomacy and Negotiations

Key Evidence

• Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to attacks on Iran by Israel and the United States. 13 sources
• Reported event: Tehran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz and fire missiles and drones at Israel and other targets across the region. 1 source
• The war between the United States and Israel against Iran that began on February 28, 2026 may actually increase Iran's regional sway by demonstrating Tehran's ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz. 2 sources
• Iran is using Strait of Hormuz closure as leverage to pressure the United States and Israel to cease military attacks. 9 sources
• The United States should not only demand that Iran unblock the Strait of Hormuz, but also cease hostilities. 1 source

What Could Change

Developments that could shift our assessment — sources are currently split on these possibilities.

• The united arab emirates could join international coalition operations if a coalition forms and begins operations to reopen the strait of hormuz.