European Natural Gas Price Surge 2025-2026

Situation

European natural gas prices experienced sharp increases (23-109%) between February-March 2025 and early 2026, driven by Iranian attacks on Persian Gulf energy infrastructure and regional military escalation. Price volatility reflects broader energy security concerns amid geopolitical tensions.

Key Evidence

• Reported event: U.S. benchmark crude oil prices jumped 11% on 3 April 2026. 1 source
• Reported event: European natural gas prices have increased by approximately 70 percent since March 1, 2026. 2 sources
• Reported event: The price of natural gas in the European Union has spiked to approximately €50 ($58) per megawatt-hour, a 56% increase from February 2026. 1 source
• Reported event: European gas prices rose more than 23 percent following the targeting of energy facilities in Iran and Gulf countries. 2 sources
• Reported event: European gas prices jumped by 6 percent to approximately 54 euros per megawatt-hour (approximately 58 dollars). 1 source

What Could Change

Developments that could shift our assessment — sources are currently split on these possibilities.

• Natural gas prices for european buyers will be in the price range of $3.30–3.80 per million british thermal units.
• European natural gas prices will increase by approximately 40 percent according to HSBC projections.