Food Insecurity and Dietary Changes in Middle East 2025-2026

Situation

Rising food prices and flour scarcity in Gaza and Syria are disrupting traditional holiday observances and dietary practices, with families unable to afford customary celebration foods and sweets for religious occasions.

Our Assessment

We assess: Vulnerable populations are developing sustainable informal adaptive strategies through skill-based production networks (Palestinian ma'amoul workshops, Daraa hawrani sweets expansion) that leverage existing cultural knowledge and family inheritance systems to buffer against price volatility, with these strategies demonstrating medium-term viability through diversified regional market expansion and demonstrated resilience despite resource constraints.

Key Evidence

• Reported event: Butter chicken dishes disappeared from menus in Indian restaurants due to cooking gas shortage. 1 source
• Reported event: Bakeries in the Occupied West Bank face pressure to either continue operating at high costs or reduce production, which threatens bread availability as an essential commodity. 1 source
• Reported event: Malaysia imports the majority of finished food products and raw materials for domestic food production. 1 source
• Reported event: Demand for traditional Eid cookies in Gaza remains high despite increased ingredient costs in February 2024. 1 source
• Forecast: The United Nations projects that global food prices could average 15% to 20% higher in the first half of 2026 if the Middle East crisis persists. 1 source

Alternative Explanations

• Adaptive observance preserves cultural identity under constraints (low likelihood)
• Religious ritual disruption exceeds other food insecurity impacts in severity (low likelihood)
• Macroeconomic collapse as primary driver (low likelihood)

What Could Change

Developments that could shift our assessment — sources are currently split on these possibilities.

• The United Nations projects that global food prices could average 15% to 20% higher in the first half of 2026 if the Middle East crisis persists.
• The gost standard for traditional russian cuisine is planned to be expanded beyond the current 133 dishes covered.